In my strategic overview of the landscape ahead I see tremendous and fierce competitive forces for the four giants: Facebook, Google, Apple, Twitter, Microsoft. I have reached the conclusion that I must treat Facebook-Microsoft as one quasi-company. I call it FBSoft. This is not dissimilar to the US-UK in WWII (yes MS is UK in this example- this analogy does not carry with it moral parallels at all). They effectively will act as proxies for each other. One will not make a move without strategic synchrony. Skype was one of these proxy moves. This the forces Apple to have to choose a an ally. It seems to me that an Apple-Twitter alliance (of the FBSoft kind is the most natural and powerful fit. This would leave Google having to make a very large and large and move. This will drive massive consolidation spiking in 2012-2014. Instagram was just one of he early signals of what’s ahead. As the dust settles the tectonic plates will realign and the tech world will look different. I expect a lot of value creation will happen during this creatively disruptive period. I call it the Social Wars. Grab your virtual guns and get in the arena. This will be an epic and historic battle for the future of technology leadership and innovation.
